7. Where Did Libya Go Wrong? Is There a Solution?

After Gaddafi's assassination, the entire world turned its curious eyes toward Libya. The country had escaped the grip of a strong dictator, and Libyans were freed from his oppression. There was hope that democracy would be established and better days would arrive for the people of Libya. The world waited with expectations, believing Libya would soon wave the flag of progress and inspire everyone with its development. However, unfortunately, chaos and unrest began to take root in Libya from the very day of Gaddafi's death. In hindsight, after Gaddafi’s demise, Libya had an opportunity to turn its transitional period into a structured and peaceful era, stepping onto the path of development. The country had abundant oil resources, was geographically close to European nations, and had examples of neighbouring countries that had followed similar paths. Yet, Libya descended into decline. Why? What were the reasons behind this? Who is responsible? Where did Libya go wrong? It is natural for such questions to arise. But before posing these questions, we must examine today’s situation in the context of the political, economic, and social systems during the times of King Idris and Gaddafi. The Story of Libya: From Colonial Rule to Chaos As we all know, Libya was under Italian control until 1943. However, after Italy’s defeat in World War II, Libya came under the administration of the Allied forces. Later, on December 24, 1951, Libya freed itself from all forms of subjugation and declared itself an independent nation. From that point until 1969, Libya was ruled by King Idris. King Idris, who became Libya’s first monarch, was not a particularly capable ruler. He was largely a puppet of the Allied forces, nodding to everything they said. Libya, with its diverse tribal population, could not find unity under his leadership. Furthermore, he was entirely dependent on Western nations for the technology required to extract oil from Libya’s oil wells. Foreign companies exploited this situation, setting oil prices to suit their interests and amassing massive profits. Libya, despite its abundant oil resources, was left in economic distress. At this point, Libyan citizens began to question when the nation would see progress. Some even voiced the idea of dividing the country into three parts, suggesting they would prefer to crown leaders of their choice to govern their respective regions. These cries for division persisted until 1969, when Gaddafi came to power. Upon assuming leadership, Gaddafi immediately renegotiated contracts with foreign companies, bringing them under his control. He issued threats to halt oil production for those who did not comply. Left with no choice, the foreign companies conceded, and Libya began to reap significant profits from its oil wealth. With vast oil reserves and a small population, Gaddafi used the revenue to uplift Libyan society. This earned him the trust of the people, who began to see him as a reliable leader. Consequently, the calls for division gradually faded, and Libyans threw their full support behind Gaddafi. Like all leaders, Gaddafi had both supporters and detractors. However, his opponents constituted only about 9% of the population. Gaddafi, a secular leader, treated everyone equally. He was notably progressive regarding Libyan women, promoting opportunities for them across all sectors of society. However, this stance angered certain fundamentalist groups. These groups, along with some others, eventually orchestrated a revolution to oust Gaddafi. How and why they succeeded is a story I have shared with you before. Regarding Libya’s social structure, I remember a conversation with a Libyan colleague during my visit there. He once remarked, “Mark my words, after Gaddafi’s death, people here will start fighting amongst themselves and killing each other.” Intrigued, I asked, “Why?” He replied, “Libya is a country of many tribes. Gaddafi somehow managed to keep them united, but there’s no guarantee that anyone after him will be able to do the same.” His words have turned out to be eerily true today. Since Gaddafi’s death, the tribes in Libya have risen against one another, vying for power. Hatred has fuelled violence, and people have been fighting and killing each other. This unrest began the day after Gaddafi’s death, starting in Benghazi, the birthplace of the rebellion against him. Gradually, the violence spread to major cities like Tripoli, Zawiya, Misrata, Sabha, and others. At the time, NATO was still present in Libya. Had it chosen, NATO could have put an end to the chaos immediately. Instead, NATO bombed several cities, temporarily suppressing the unrest, and helped install an interim government that signed agreements in their favor before leaving the country. A significant mistake was made during the formation of this interim government. Many who had actively fought on the battlefield during the revolution were denied key positions. Instead, wealthy Libyans working abroad were brought in to occupy prominent roles. This naturally led to dissatisfaction among the revolutionaries. Additionally, many Gaddafi supporters were completely side-lined, further fuelling discontent. Today, Libya is paying the price for these oversights, as the country remains engulfed in chaos and division. As we know, disputes began among people regarding the decision to invite NATO. NATO's involvement in Libya came at the very last stage, approximately when three-quarters of Libya had already slipped out of Gaddafi's control. At this point, the U.S. summoned some key leaders and suggested, "You should take NATO's assistance to bring an end to this." Without much hesitation, they agreed, which angered some factions. The disgruntled individuals argued, "Why did we call NATO when victory was nearly certain? We could have overthrown Gaddafi ourselves without their help. Now, look, we unnecessarily have to bow to NATO's agreements and hand over our oil resources to them." Their discontent grew, and one day, in a fit of anger, they even killed the U.S. ambassador.

After the revolution, the interim government, tasked with rebuilding Libya, focused on addressing immediate post-war needs. Meanwhile, some militia groups, driven by hunger for power and money, began to emerge and disrupt the interim government. Among the prominent groups were Libya Dawn, Sun Rise, Zintan, and Al-Ansar Sharia. These groups often resorted to extortion, threatening the government with weapons such as guns and artillery if their demands were not met. Shockingly, instead of countering such actions, the government chose to pay them off in an attempt to maintain peace in the country. Seeing how easy it was to extort money, more individuals began forming their own groups to compete and create similar disruptions. Tragically, instead of taking measures to suppress such groups, the government continued to appease them by paying money, perpetuating the cycle of instability. If these militia groups were mere protesters, they could have been suppressed somehow. However, they had access to weapons. The question is, how did they get these weapons? A major incident occurred during the revolution of February 17, 2011. Amidst the chaos and lawlessness of the revolution, there was no one to listen or enforce order. Around this time, when it became evident that Gaddafi was on the verge of losing, people attacked the unguarded armories in Tripoli police stations, seizing guns and other weapons. As news of this spread like wildfire, people across the country raided local armories to secure weapons for their protection. Some believe that as Gaddafi realized his defeat was imminent, he distributed guns and weapons to Libyan households, urging them to defend themselves against enemies. Consequently, today, almost every Libyan household has at least five to six guns or rifles, which people carry with them at all times for protection. After the revolution, the interim government failed to take control of these weapons. To make matters worse, people started openly selling guns like toys on the streets of Tripoli. Even then, the government did nothing. Amidst this, the decision was made to conduct elections as quickly as possible to establish a stable democratic government. However, by the time elections were held, it was too late. Newly formed militia groups had grown strong. Clashes and unrest began in Tripoli and Benghazi. Some argued that the constitution should be drafted first, followed by the formation of a government. Others insisted on forming the government first and drafting the constitution later. After much deliberation, the decision was made to form the government first. Despite widespread chaos, protests, and opposition, elections were held across Libya on July 7, 2012. Even during the elections, there were complaints. Some alleged that certain tribal groups were neglected, while others accused regional favoritism in ticket allocation. Amidst all this turmoil, the election results were declared, and a government under the leadership of the General National Congress (GNC) was formed. Simultaneously, efforts to draft a constitution began, but its implementation faced delays. As a result, the government became a nominal authority without constitutional backing. Meanwhile, the militia groups that had already emerged grew stronger and began to challenge the GNC government as well. The GNC government spent its three-year tenure trying to suppress these groups and address immediate crises, but it failed to achieve stability.

Three years later, in the last week of June 2014, elections were held simultaneously across the country to establish a new government. However, this time, a different party gained a majority. While they were focused on forming the government, certain extremists in the country did not wish for a democracy to be established. They desired a leader like Gaddafi to rule the nation. The Misrata-based organization "IIBTHICHI ACHITITI" became so power-hungry that they wanted to govern the entire nation. They participated in the elections superficially, suppressing their discontent and lying in wait like embers under ashes. At the same time, the UOA, which had previously experienced power, suffered a setback in this election and continued to crave authority. In their desperation, they joined hands with the Misrata group. As the elected members prepared to take their oaths, groups like Libya Dawn and the UOA waited for the right time to overthrow the government and seize control. Initially, the oath-taking ceremony was planned to take place in Benghazi, a city symbolic of rebellion against Gaddafi. However, just eight days before the ceremony, on July 13, 2014, the Misrata faction attacked the Tripoli International Airport. This conflict quickly escalated. Simultaneously, in Benghazi, clashes broke out among various groups, with intense fighting involving rockets and missiles. Fearful citizens fled to neighboring countries like Tunisia and Egypt. Libya became a witness to yet another war. The government, not yet formally established, was rendered helpless. As the Misrata faction captured the Tripoli airport and nearby government offices, the Ansar al-Sharia militant group began seizing government offices in Benghazi. Meanwhile, the ISIS militants, who had already strengthened their activities in Iraq and Syria, infiltrated Libya. This created an enormous crisis for the nascent government. Realizing the urgency, the elected members quickly decided to proceed with the oath-taking ceremony, relocating it from Benghazi to Tobruk due to the escalating violence in Benghazi. This relocation further enraged the people of Benghazi. By the time the government was formed, unrest had spread to major cities like Zawia and Zuwara, increasing insecurity across the nation. Kidnappings, assaults, robberies, and looting became commonplace in Tripoli and Benghazi. Consequently, countries like the United States, Egypt, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, and Canada closed their embassies and evacuated their diplomats from the capital. Prime Minister Thinni pleaded with these nations not to abandon Libya. He reminded them that they had helped overthrow Gaddafi and urged them to assist in establishing a stable government. However, U.S. President Obama responded by saying that Libya, being a tribal nation, was complicated, and further involvement could backfire. With this, the U.S. maintained a neutral stance, likely due to lingering anger over the killing of its ambassador in Libya. Other nations followed suit, choosing neutrality. While Tripoli and Benghazi were caught under rebel control, the government struggled to suppress them, as the rebel forces were twice the size of the government’s military. The interim government had previously dismissed a significant number of soldiers and police officers recruited under Gaddafi's regime, stating a lack of trust in them. They were paid salaries to remain inactive. Many of these individuals left service and pursued other livelihoods, while the government failed to recruit replacements. Furthermore, advanced weaponry smuggled in via the Misrata port from Turkey, Qatar, Sudan, and Dubai strengthened the rebels. The Misrata group eventually captured significant territories, including the capital Tripoli, and established their own government. Consequently, Libya now had two governments: the elected government and the coalition government of the Misrata faction and the UOA. The conflict between these two governments continued. Observers speculated that the nation might split into two entities—Eastern Libya and Western Libya. However, the majority of Libyans and nations like the U.S., Europe, the UK, and Egypt supported the elected government. Amid this, Libya’s Supreme Court declared that the Misrata government was more capable of leading the nation. The elected government rejected this ruling, claiming the verdict was influenced by bribes and threats from the Misrata faction. The Libyan people also alleged that the Misrata group had coerced the judges into making a favorable ruling. Looking at Libya’s political crisis, it seems unlikely that the situation will resolve soon. Either a leader like Gaddafi must emerge to unify the country, or the people must recognize the value of democracy and work together to establish it. Both scenarios appear challenging in the current situation. If nothing else works, the U.S. and its allies, who once helped overthrow Gaddafi, must intervene to establish a stable government. What will happen in Libya next? Will democracy succeed, or will another dictatorship emerge? Given the current political developments, it is too early to predict. Even Libyans themselves are uncertain about the unfolding events. In my opinion, a dictatorship is unlikely to return, as the U.S. and its allies will not allow it due to their existing agreements and oil interests. Out of fear of losing these benefits, they might intervene at the last moment. If they do, the rebels can be suppressed, and peace can be restored in Libya. Let’s hope this happens soon. I felt compelled to write this article to update you all on Libya’s current situation. From next time, I will continue my series on my personal experiences here. Kannada Original: Uday Itagi English Translation: Uday Itagi